2016

6 posts
FiveThirtyEight Chat On Maps: Turning The “Big” States Blue

The folks at FiveThirtyEight had a fun data visualization discussion during their regular election chat this week, about whether Hillary Clinton should focus on ensuring victory next month or spending more money in “red” states to expand her Electoral College map. Nate Silver chimes in by alluding to the classic discussion about how choropleth maps of the United States in a political context can distort a story. That’s because geographically...

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Charting the Popularity of ‘Hillary’

Hillary Clinton’s strong win in New York has solidified her standing as the Democratic presidential frontrunner, and it appears Bernie Sanders’ bid for the nomination is increasingly unlikely. Trouble looms, though. Clinton remains quite unpopular ahead of the general election, according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Dan Balz’ take in The Washington Post on her favorable/unfavorable ratings (emphasis added): Clinton’s image is at or near record lows among...

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Charting Clinton’s Sizable Lead in Votes

To some Bernie Sanders supporters, the Democratic presidential race must seem close. Their candidate, after all, has essentially split victories with Hillary Clinton in the more than 30 election primaries and caucuses since the process began in February — including several in a row recently. Clinton, their thinking goes, may have a lead in pledged delegates for the nomination, but her sizable and (for now) critical lead among party leaders...

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Sanders Strongest in Educated Areas

Last week we examined how the Democratic presidential campaigns have performed in the context of Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election. That analysis grouped Obama’s vote share into categories, highlighting how the country’s reddest and bluest counties have voted for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders so far in the Democratic primaries. Clinton, the clear frontrunner, performed best in areas where Obama was strongest against Mitt Romney. But Sanders did slightly better when majority...

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Comparing Clinton, Sanders Vote Share with Obama 2012

Among the fascinating aspects of American politics are the various factors — demographic, financial, historical, etc. — that shape the geography of campaigns. This election cycle is no different, with presidential candidates in both parties winning a seemingly random mix of specific counties and overall states since the primary season began in Iowa on Feb. 1. On the Democratic side, one question has nagged me this week: How have Hillary...

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Clinton Dominates ‘Majority Minority’ Counties

Hillary Clinton’s efforts to win over minority voters have paid off significantly in the Democratic primaries. Many of these voters simply aren’t feeling the Bern, according to voting results and demographics data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since January, Clinton and her main rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, have faced off in 26 states, pulling about 15 million votes from 1,900 counties and county equivalents. (Votes in two states, Kansas and...

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