FiveThirtyEight

4 posts
Umpire strike zone changes to finish game earlier

When watching baseball on television, we get the benefit of seeing whether a pitch entered the strike zone or not. Umpires go by eye, and intentional or not, they tend towards finishing a game over extra innings. Michael Lopez, Brian Mills, and Gus Wezerek for FiveThirtyEight: The left panel shows the comparative rate of strike calls when, in the bottom of an inning in extras, the batting team is positioned...

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FiveThirtyEight datasets available for download

If you’re looking for some data to play with, FiveThirtyEight just made it easier to download their data and code. They’ve been on GitHub, I think from the beginning, but this data page is even more straightforward and to the point. Tags: FiveThirtyEight

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Redistricting the congressional map with different goals

FiveThirtyEight asks, “There’s a lot of complaining about gerrymandering, but what should districts look like?” Looking for an answer, they imagined redistricting with different goals in mind, such as gerrymandering favoring Republicans or Democrats, promoting competitive elections, and maximizing majority-minority. Check out the possibilities for the nation or zoom in to a specific state. The latter provides a further breakdown by district and then race. So yeah, if you’re into...

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Life expectancy by state, against the US average

FiveThirtyEight continues their look at mortality by geography. This graphic by Anna Maria Barry-Jester compares life expectancy over time for each state. Purple means below average and orange means above. The good news is that all the lines trend upward. The bad news is that some states are trending upwards much more slowly than the rest. Tags: FiveThirtyEight, mortality, small multiples

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Mapping death in America, 1980 to 2014

Nationwide mortality data relies on death certificates, and when cause of death is unknown, sometimes “garbage codes” are used to fill the space on the form. This leads to unwanted noise, because garbage in, garbage out as the saying goes. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation tried to soften the noise and strengthen the signal. Ella Koeze for FiveThirtyEight mapped the results. Flip through causes and animate over time....

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Stephen Curry for MVP, because he makes his teammates better the most

The choice for Most Valuable Player in the NBA is only minimally about the numbers, but it’s fun to look anyways. FiveThirtyEight makes the case for Stephen Curry. I particularly like the chart that shows how other players on a team fare when an MVP candidate doesn’t play. Not only do virtually all of his teammates (10 of 11 players with at least 30 shots, representing over 1,700 shots taken...

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Trump approval ratings compared to past presidents

Using multiple polls as their source data, FiveThirtyEight is tracking approval and disapproval ratings for Donald Trump. The page leads with overall estimates with a couple of bands of uncertainty for projections into the next few months. I still wonder what proportion of readers understand the ranges, but I’m glad they’re there. Scroll down the page to see how Trump’s ratings compare to past presidents. You can switch between approval,...

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Mapping Opposition to the GOP Health Care Bill by Congressional District

The legislative failure of the GOP’s replacement for Obamacare has been widely reported, obviously, but I remain interested in one bit of polling noted this week by FiveThirtyEight. The polling firm YouGov estimated the legislation’s unpopularity by congressional district. The bill itself was quite unpopular, it turns out, even in conservative districts, as FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver reported. Thanks to DailyKos Elections, we can also marry the data with President Donald...

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States most similar to the US overall

“Normal America.” I’m not sure what that means anymore, but at some point it had a lot to do with demographics. Naturally, the “normal” that you look at or want bleeds into policy-making and the like. Jed Kolko for FiveThirtyEight looks into the states most similar to the country overall — the one from 1950 and from today. But the places that look today most like 1950 America are not...

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Charting Historical Voter Turnout

As FiveThirtyEight notes, turnout in the 2016 presidential election isn’t dramatically lower than it was four years ago, according to the latest estimates. And with many mail-in and provision ballots still being counted, the 2016 turnout rate could still change: Approximately 58.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in last week’s presidential election, according to the latest estimates from Michael McDonald, associate professor at the University of Florida, who gathers...

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