10 posts
Using statistical models to win almost a $1B in horse-race gambling

Kit Chellel for Bloomberg tells the riveting gambling story of Bill Benter, who used statistics to model horse-racing in Japan. My favorite part is the pre-Internet process Benter took to collect data and predict results: Benter’s model required his undivided attention. It monitored only about 20 inputs—just a fraction of the infinite factors that influence a horse’s performance, from wind speed to what it ate for breakfast. In pursuit of...

0 0
Texas hold ‘em win probabilities

Software engineer Chris Beaumont visualized the strength of opponent hands in Texas hold 'em, given any other hand. This is based on counting about 1.3 trillion possible combinations. Simply enter a card combination, and the grid shows the win-loss percentage differences for all possible opponent hands. Each card value (e.g. 2 or a King) pair is represented as a four by four grid to show each suit (e.g. heart or...

0 0
Gambler’s perspective on sports team win probabilities

Michael Beuoy's win probability model plotted on FiveThirtyEight starts all NBA teams at a 50% chance of winning. Then the probability of winning a game increases and decreases from there. However, practically speaking, we know something about the teams before each game, and we don't give even chances to the worst and best team at the zero-minute mark. So Todd Schneider took a different approach to minute-by-minute win probability —...

0 0