45 posts
Chart: Republican Attacks on the FBI Have Worked, Especially on Republicans

HuffPost is out with an interesting poll about the the public’s trust in the FBI, which has been under attack recently for its role in the investigations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Trump and his supporters have been particularly tough on the bureau, and it shows in the polling data. A slim 51 percent majority of the public say they have at least a fair amount of trust in...

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How Do We Solve North Korea? Yonsei University Students Have Ideas.

I gave a guest lecture today to an East Asian international relations course at Yonsei University in Seoul. As part of the class, the more than 40 students participated in an exercise by answering this question about North Korea: How do we address the North Korea nuclear issue? 1. Accept as nuclear state 2. Strike known nuclear targets 3. International sanctions 4. Suspend U.S. military drills 5. Diplomacy 6. Two...

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Cards Against Humanity’s public poll results

For the past few months, Cards Against Humanity polled the American public to ask important questions such as whether or not it is okay to pee in the shower. To conduct our polls in a scientifically rigorous manner, we’ve partnered with Survey Sampling International — a professional research firm — to contact a nationally representative sample of the American public. For the first three polls, we interrupted people’s dinners on...

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Mapping Opposition to the GOP Health Care Bill by Congressional District

The legislative failure of the GOP’s replacement for Obamacare has been widely reported, obviously, but I remain interested in one bit of polling noted this week by FiveThirtyEight. The polling firm YouGov estimated the legislation’s unpopularity by congressional district. The bill itself was quite unpopular, it turns out, even in conservative districts, as FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver reported. Thanks to DailyKos Elections, we can also marry the data with President Donald...

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How one man shifts national polls

I love the statistics lessons coming out of the Upshot, in the context of the upcoming election. In their most recent, Nate Cohn goes into varying statistical weights and how just one man can unknowingly shift the polls. Our Trump-supporting friend in Illinois is a surprisingly big part of the reason. In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as...

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Simulation shows why polls don’t always match future results

With election season in full swing, as far as the news is concerned at least, we get to see poll after poll in the beginning of a voting day and then reports the next day about which ones were wrong. Based on the news alone, it feels like almost every poll is just plain wrong. Maarten Lambrechts shows what’s going on here with Rock ‘n Poll. It simulates a poll...

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