baseline

13 posts
Euler diagram to illustrate base rate fallacy

Some people point out that vaccinated people are still hospitalized as a defense against getting vaccinated. But they ignore the inverse which compares the number of those who are not hospitalized. Someone (source?) made this Euler diagram to illustrate the inverse. It’s about making a fair comparison. People who wear seat belts can still die in a car collision. People who use contraception can still get STIs. People who eat...

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Rate of change in Covid-19 cases

We’re all familiar with the Covid-19 line charts that show cases over time, which highlights absolute counts. There are peaks. There are some valleys. Emory Parker for STAT shifted the focus to how quickly the rate is changing, or acceleration, to emphasize which direction rates are headed. Tags: baseline, change, coronavirus, STAT

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xkcd: Base Rate

xkcd points out the importance of considering the baseline when making comparisons: Tags: baseline, humor, xkcd

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✚ Adjust Your Baseline Accordingly (The Process 093)

The right baseline provides a way to compare everything else in a useful way. The wrong baseline makes the rest of the data useless. Read More

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Missing deaths

The daily counts for coronavirus deaths rely on reporting, testing, and available estimates, which means the numbers we see are probably lower than the real counts. So, for The New York Times, Jin Wu and Allison McCann plotted overall deaths against historical averages for a better sense of what’s really happening. The contrasting red lines provide an obvious figure against the “would have died anyways” argument. Tags: baseline, coronavirus, New...

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✚ Bar Chart Baselines Don’t Have to Start at Zero? (The Process #66)

False. Read More

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✚ Adjusting the Point of Reference to Highlight Different Aspects of the Data (The Process #49)

They provide an anchor in your charts, and you compare everything else against the anchor. Where you set the anchor changes your chart completely. Read More

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✚ Line Chart Baselines Do Not Have to Start at Zero (The Process #39)

There was renewed interest in — gasp — truncated axes this week, a never-ending debate about whether starting axes at non-zero is misleading. Read More

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Useless Points of Comparison

Make sure you don't end up in an apples and oranges situation where the comparisons don't even make sense. Read More

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Misleading Medicaid funding with the baseline

The administration tweeted a chart that shows the Senate Republican health care bill increases Medicaid funding. The line moves up, so it must be true, right? Well, it depends on what you compare to. The original simply compares over time — against the past. Vox compared it against what spending would be under current law. Tags: baseline, Medicaid

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