21 posts
Challenges of making a reliable Covid-19 model

Fatalities from Covid-19 range from the hundreds of thousands to the millions. Nobody knows for sure. These predictions are based on statistical models, which are based on data, which aren’t consistent and reliable yet. FiveThirtyEight, whose bread and butter is models and forecasts, breaks down the challenges of making a model and why they haven’t provided any. Tags: coronavirus, FiveThirtyEight, modeling

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Simulating an epidemic

3Blue1Brown goes into more of the math of SIR models — which drive many of the simulations you’ve seen so far — that assume people are susceptible, infectious, or recovered. Tags: 3Blue1Brown, coronavirus, epidemic, simulation

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Toilet Paper Calculator

Maybe you're starting to run low. Here's how much you'll need when you go to restock. Read More

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Coronavirus data at the state and county level, from The New York Times

Comprehensive national data on Covid-19 has been hard to come by through government agencies. The New York Times released their own dataset and will be updating regularly: The tracking effort grew from a handful of Times correspondents to a large team of journalists that includes experts in data and graphics, staff news assistants and freelance reporters, as well as journalism students from Northwestern University, the University of Missouri and the...

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Now pull

A comic by Marcos Balfagón attaches action to the curve. Tags: comic, coronavirus, curve

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Unemployment spike

The Department of Labor released the numbers for last week’s unemployment filings. 3.28 million for the country. For The New York Times, Quocktrung Bui and Justin Wolfers show the numbers relative to the past and a breakdown by state: This downturn is different because it’s a direct result of relatively synchronized government directives that forced millions of stores, schools and government offices to close. It’s as if an economic umpire...

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Track confirmed Covid-19 cases by country, state, and region

Wade Fagen-Ulmschneider made a set of interactive charts to track confirmed coronavirus cases. Switch between regions and scales. See the data normalized for population or not. See trends for active cases, confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries. Usually this much chartage and menu options would seem overwhelming. But by now, many of us have probably seen enough trackers that we’re ready to shift away from consumption into exploratory mode. The data...

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Everyone Else

In a Channel 4 clip, Hugh Montgomery does some back-of-the-napkin math contrasting the normal flu against the coronavirus. “If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don’t mind if you get the flu, remember it’s not about you – it’s about everybody else.” Intensive care specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery explains why this coronavirus is different from the ordinary flu. — Channel 4 Dispatches (@C4Dispatches) March 22, 2020 Montgomery...

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Break the chain

For The Spinoff, Toby Morris illustrates how individuals can break a chain of events: The good news is, we can do things that will reduce the chances of us spreading the virus. That means we can break these chains and potentially stop hundreds or even thousands of people getting Covid-19. Check out The Spinoff cartoonist Toby Morris’ excellent illustration to understand how individual discipline can have an outsize impact. Of...

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Particle flows show how the coronavirus ramped up

Using a combination of estimates based on cell phone movements and outbreak size, The New York Times shows how the coronavirus started with a few cases and then spread around the world. The particle flows to represent travel volume from city to city is something else. NYT used a scrollytelling format that starts on a geographic map. You see a few points at first, the virus spreads, and then there’s...

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