elections

12 posts
Contrasting social media Democrats to real life

As many know (I hope), what we see on social media often doesn’t mirror real life. It’s a filtered and algorithmically-driven point of view. This grows problematic when people make decisions based solely on what they see through their feeds. For The Upshot, Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy look at the contrasts between the filtered view and the real life view and how it factors into voting. Tags: elections, social...

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Higher turnout for midterm elections

Bloomberg charted voter turnout for the just past midterm elections, comparing 2018 against 2014. As you might expect, there are a lot of blue arrows pointed up and to the left. Turnout decreased in only two districts. Tags: Bloomberg, elections

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Statistics lesson on polling

Nate Cohn for the Upshot provides a statistics lesson in the context of election forecasts and why they differ so much. [P]ollsters make a series of decisions when designing their survey, from determining likely voters to adjusting their respondents to match the demographics of the electorate. These decisions are hard. They usually take place behind the scenes, and they can make a huge difference. To make the point, the Upshot...

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Grid map shows shifting states

You’re likely familiar with the state grid map form used these days. Instead of using geographic boundaries, you place states in a grid layout, giving an equal-sized cell to each state so that they all get the same visual weight. The Wall Street Journal combined it with a time series for each state in their field guide to shifting states. The country is more than just red states and blue...

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Track what your government representatives are doing for you

Taking over an old New York Times project, ProPublica re-launches Represent, which offers an app and an API to see what your local lawmakers have been doing on your behalf. Represent will show details of votes and bills and provide a way for you to follow the activities of your elected representatives and understand how they fit into the broader world of American politics. For example, we’ll show you how...

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Balance the Trump and Cruz tax plans

The tax plans of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump might seem fine if you don’t think about the actual values. Tax cuts. Less government spending. But then it gets tricky when you look at what they’re actually proposing. Alvin Chang for Vox provides a simple interactive to show what the Cruz and Trump and budgets require. They want to cut so much government spending that it’s virtually impossible to figure...

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Super Tuesday simulation to show uncertainty

As we know, there are various outcomes during election season, with uncertainty in each round. The Upshot is currently using a simulation to show the expectations of tonight. These estimates, which include states that have not yet reported all their votes, are based on several factors: Our expectations of every candidate’s performance, the voting results in other states and the demographic makeup and historical voting patterns of voters in each...

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Possible paths for a Trump nomination loss or win

It pains me to imagine a time when Donald Trump earns a Republican nomination. There are a number of ways he can get there, and there are a number of ways Marco Rubio can win the nod. The Upshot simulated the possible routes. To figure out what it will take for Donald J. Trump — or Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz — to win the Republican nomination, we built the...

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How various demographic groups can change the election result

Does your vote matter? Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight provide an interactive that shows what states might switch sides if you changed turnout rate and party preference for various demographic groups. There's a dragger on the bottom for each group, where the vertical axis is the turnout rate and the horizontal is party preference. As you click and drag, states move back and forth accordingly. The transition of...

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How various demographic groups can change the election result

Does your vote matter? Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight provide an interactive that shows what states might switch sides if you changed turnout rate and party preference for various demographic groups. There's a dragger on the bottom for each group, where the vertical axis is the turnout rate and the horizontal is party preference. As you click and drag, states move back and forth accordingly. The transition of...

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