FiveThirtyEight

40 posts
FiveThirtyEight evaluates their forecasts

FiveThirtyEight uses forecasts to attach probabilities to politics and sports, and they get most of their attention before the events. After all, we don’t need a forecast after something happened. But forecasts aren’t useful if they don’t represent reality. So, FiveThirtyEight evaluated all of their projections. Tags: FiveThirtyEight, forecasting

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How to spot a partisan gerrymander

For FiveThirtyEight, William T. Adler and Ella Koeze describe how a metric called partisan bias is used to assess partisan gerrymandering. As you might imagine, it’s fuzzy. Tags: FiveThirtyEight, gerrymandering

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Personality quiz with traits on a spectrum

Ah, the online personality quiz, oh how I missed you. Oh wait, this one is slightly different. For FiveThirtyEight, Maggie Koerth-Baker and Julia Wolfe provide a quiz used by psychologists to gauge personality traits: First, the Big Five doesn’t put people into neat personality “types,” because that’s not how personalities really work. Instead, the quiz gives you a score on five different traits: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, negative emotionality and openness...

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Unreliable gun data from the CDC

FiveThirtyEight and The Trace investigate the uncertainty and accuracy of gun injury data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: An analysis performed by FiveThirtyEight and The Trace, a nonprofit news organization covering gun violence in America, found that the CDC’s report of a steady increase in nonfatal gun injuries is out of step with a downward trend we found using data from multiple independent public health and...

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2018 House forecast from FiveThirtyEight

Ever since the huge forecasting upset in 2016, I’ve tended to stay away from that stuff. I mean, it was painful to watch the Golden State Warriors, a huge favorite to win the championship basically the whole series, lose to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Yeah. The Warriors. What were you thinking of? Alas, it is 2018, and FiveThirtyEight has their forecast for who will control the House. Mainly, I post for...

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LeBron James legacy versus championship-winning

LeBron James decides where he takes his talents this summer, and the sports news outlets continue to review every scenario as rumors trickle in. Neil Paine and Gus Wezerek for FiveThirtyEight present their quantitative solution, sending James to the Philadelphia 76ers. On one hand, they consider the chances of winning a championship in the next four years, based on projection models. On the other hand, they consider a more subjective...

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Counting the times Kevin Durant’s shoe came off during games

This is what happens when there is a lull during the basketball playoff season. Chris Herring, for FiveThirtyEight, goes into full detail of the relatively high number of times Kevin Durant’s shoe falls off during games: All told, an extensive video analysis of Durant’s games from the past three regular seasons and postseasons reveals that the four-time scoring champ has come out of his shoe at least 31 times since...

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Umpire strike zone changes to finish game earlier

When watching baseball on television, we get the benefit of seeing whether a pitch entered the strike zone or not. Umpires go by eye, and intentional or not, they tend towards finishing a game over extra innings. Michael Lopez, Brian Mills, and Gus Wezerek for FiveThirtyEight: The left panel shows the comparative rate of strike calls when, in the bottom of an inning in extras, the batting team is positioned...

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FiveThirtyEight datasets available for download

If you’re looking for some data to play with, FiveThirtyEight just made it easier to download their data and code. They’ve been on GitHub, I think from the beginning, but this data page is even more straightforward and to the point. Tags: FiveThirtyEight

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Redistricting the congressional map with different goals

FiveThirtyEight asks, “There’s a lot of complaining about gerrymandering, but what should districts look like?” Looking for an answer, they imagined redistricting with different goals in mind, such as gerrymandering favoring Republicans or Democrats, promoting competitive elections, and maximizing majority-minority. Check out the possibilities for the nation or zoom in to a specific state. The latter provides a further breakdown by district and then race. So yeah, if you’re into...

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