FiveThirtyEight

7 posts
Abortion restrictions in the U.S.

For FiveThirtyEight, Anna Wiederkehr and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, with illustrations by Nicole Rifkin, delve into the varying restrictions in each state. Laws based on fetus viability, distance to clinics, waiting periods, and cost must all be factored in with women’s decisions. Tags: abortion, FiveThirtyEight

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Past redlining still seen in the present

In the 1930s, a group called the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation went to cities classifying neighborhoods based on the “risk” of defaulting on loans. Areas deemed highest risk were marked with red ink on a map, and these areas tended to be non-white. The classification, redlining, was made illegal, but you can still see the effects today, as shown by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía with these interactive maps for...

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Accuracy of groundhog weather prediction

For FiveThirtyEight, Simran Parwani and Kaleigh Rogers compared Groundhog Day predictions against actual weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: After dozens of grueling hours of investigation, FiveThirtyEight can confirm that Punxsutawney Phil is a charlatan. A groundbreaking analysis has revealed the Pennsylvania-based groundhog who makes annual predictions about the arrival of spring is not nearly as reliable a prognosticator as those close to him claim. Phil, arguably...

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World Chess Championship in charts

Magnus Carlsen continued to assert his dominance at the World Chess Championship. FiveThirtyEight broke down Carlsen’s dominance in the final match with Ian Nepomniachtchi with a series of difference charts. In the quick view, you see it was either a draw or a Carlsen win over 11 games. Tags: chess, FiveThirtyEight, Magnus Carlsen

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Small gatherings can be dangerous too

A small gathering of 10 people or fewer can seem like a low-risk activity, and at the individual level, it’s lower risk than going to a big birthday party. But when a lot of people everywhere are gathering, small or large, the collective risk goes up. For FiveThirtyEight, Maggie Koerth and Elena Mejía illustrate the reasoning. The collective part is where many seem to get tripped up. “Flattening the curve”...

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Testing voting scenarios while we wait for the counts

As we wait for the votes to be counted in the remaining states, here are a couple of interactives to test the possibilities. The New York Times updated their graphic on all possible paths to the White House (the original from 2012). FiveThirtyEight also has their thing: Or, there’s this decision tree by Kerry Rodden: Or, you could carry on with your day as if nothing is happening and not...

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Comparing correlation in the FiveThirtyEight and Economist election forecasts

FiveThirtyEight and The Economist take similar inputs but output different forecasts. Adam Pearce was curious about how the state-by-state correlations differed between the two models: Outside of the CA-DC-VT-WA and LA-MS-ND-KY clusters, where the 538 correlation dips below 0, the models are mostly aligned. Glancing over the outliers, it looks like the Economist might not have an equivalent to 538’s regional regression that groups states in the same geographic region...

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Using the FiveThirtyEight model, see how the election odds shift with different scenarios

With each model update, FiveThirtyEight runs 40,000 simulations, or what-ifs, to calculate the odds for who will win the election. Their new interactive lets you experiment with all of the what-ifs to see how the odds shift when a candidate wins a state. It answers the question, “If ______ wins in ______ and in ______, etc., what are the chances of him winning the whole thing?” So if Trump wins...

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Tips for not letting polls and forecasts occupy your mind for two weeks

For FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver provides tips to stay less stressed staring into the darkness known at election forecasts: This is perhaps the single piece of advice we give most often at FiveThirtyEight, but it’s especially important in the final couple weeks of a campaign. After a lull this weekend, there are likely to be a lot of polls the rest of the way out. On any given day, it will...

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NBA playoff win probabilities, animated over time

FiveThirtyEight publishes win probabilities for NBA games throughout the season. During the playoffs, they show chances of winning each round, and with each game, the probabilities shift. Adam Pearce animated these shifts, from the start of the playoffs up to now. Nice. The visualization. Not so much the Lakers. Tags: Adam Pearce, basketball, FiveThirtyEight

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