FiveThirtyEight

31 posts
2018 House forecast from FiveThirtyEight

Ever since the huge forecasting upset in 2016, I’ve tended to stay away from that stuff. I mean, it was painful to watch the Golden State Warriors, a huge favorite to win the championship basically the whole series, lose to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Yeah. The Warriors. What were you thinking of? Alas, it is 2018, and FiveThirtyEight has their forecast for who will control the House. Mainly, I post for...

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LeBron James legacy versus championship-winning

LeBron James decides where he takes his talents this summer, and the sports news outlets continue to review every scenario as rumors trickle in. Neil Paine and Gus Wezerek for FiveThirtyEight present their quantitative solution, sending James to the Philadelphia 76ers. On one hand, they consider the chances of winning a championship in the next four years, based on projection models. On the other hand, they consider a more subjective...

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Counting the times Kevin Durant’s shoe came off during games

This is what happens when there is a lull during the basketball playoff season. Chris Herring, for FiveThirtyEight, goes into full detail of the relatively high number of times Kevin Durant’s shoe falls off during games: All told, an extensive video analysis of Durant’s games from the past three regular seasons and postseasons reveals that the four-time scoring champ has come out of his shoe at least 31 times since...

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Umpire strike zone changes to finish game earlier

When watching baseball on television, we get the benefit of seeing whether a pitch entered the strike zone or not. Umpires go by eye, and intentional or not, they tend towards finishing a game over extra innings. Michael Lopez, Brian Mills, and Gus Wezerek for FiveThirtyEight: The left panel shows the comparative rate of strike calls when, in the bottom of an inning in extras, the batting team is positioned...

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FiveThirtyEight datasets available for download

If you’re looking for some data to play with, FiveThirtyEight just made it easier to download their data and code. They’ve been on GitHub, I think from the beginning, but this data page is even more straightforward and to the point. Tags: FiveThirtyEight

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Redistricting the congressional map with different goals

FiveThirtyEight asks, “There’s a lot of complaining about gerrymandering, but what should districts look like?” Looking for an answer, they imagined redistricting with different goals in mind, such as gerrymandering favoring Republicans or Democrats, promoting competitive elections, and maximizing majority-minority. Check out the possibilities for the nation or zoom in to a specific state. The latter provides a further breakdown by district and then race. So yeah, if you’re into...

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Life expectancy by state, against the US average

FiveThirtyEight continues their look at mortality by geography. This graphic by Anna Maria Barry-Jester compares life expectancy over time for each state. Purple means below average and orange means above. The good news is that all the lines trend upward. The bad news is that some states are trending upwards much more slowly than the rest. Tags: FiveThirtyEight, mortality, small multiples

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Mapping death in America, 1980 to 2014

Nationwide mortality data relies on death certificates, and when cause of death is unknown, sometimes “garbage codes” are used to fill the space on the form. This leads to unwanted noise, because garbage in, garbage out as the saying goes. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation tried to soften the noise and strengthen the signal. Ella Koeze for FiveThirtyEight mapped the results. Flip through causes and animate over time....

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Stephen Curry for MVP, because he makes his teammates better the most

The choice for Most Valuable Player in the NBA is only minimally about the numbers, but it’s fun to look anyways. FiveThirtyEight makes the case for Stephen Curry. I particularly like the chart that shows how other players on a team fare when an MVP candidate doesn’t play. Not only do virtually all of his teammates (10 of 11 players with at least 30 shots, representing over 1,700 shots taken...

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Trump approval ratings compared to past presidents

Using multiple polls as their source data, FiveThirtyEight is tracking approval and disapproval ratings for Donald Trump. The page leads with overall estimates with a couple of bands of uncertainty for projections into the next few months. I still wonder what proportion of readers understand the ranges, but I’m glad they’re there. Scroll down the page to see how Trump’s ratings compare to past presidents. You can switch between approval,...

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