football

4 posts
How well players drafted in fantasy football

For The Upshot, Kevin Quealy used a heatmap to visualize fantasy football draft picks: This variance is widest for quarterbacks, whose pick patterns are so distinct you don’t even need to read their names to know they’re a quarterback. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, named the N.F.L.’s most valuable player last season, represents the most obvious example of this pattern, with a roughly equal likelihood of being drafted in any of...

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Fantasy football draft rankings, with weekly projections

Football season is starting soon, which means many will participate in the age-old tradition of the fantasy football draft. For the Washington Post, Neil Greenberg and Reuben Fischer-Baum have your back: Your fantasy football draft sets a season-long foundation for your team, but its ultimate result will be based on the weekly performance of your roster. That’s why The Washington Post is adding weekly point projections (using PPR scoring) to...

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Searching for the saddest punt ever, with statistics

For SB Nation, Jon Bois takes a statistical deep dive in the search for the saddest punt in football. It’s an hour long. It’s a surprisingly fun watch. At the very least, even if you don’t like football, you can glean some analysis and storytelling lessons from it. Tags: football, punt, SB Nation

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NFL draft performance vs. expectations

Reuben Fischer-Baum for The Washington Post looks at professional football expectations given their draft picks versus performance. By comparing how much value teams should get given their set of picks with how much value they actually get, we can calculate which franchises make the most of their draft selections. Approximate Value (AV), a stat created by Pro Football Reference that measures how well a player performed overall in a season,...

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Football catches visualized

It’s always fun to go back to sports articles and graphics that were a lead-up to a game the day after. The newest addition: this graphic from The New York Times that shows wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.’s catches this season. It shows route patterns, the catch, yards after the catch, and touchdown paths. If you’re not into football, just take it in as a small multiples example. Tags: football,...

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History of Earth in the context of a football field

In the latest addition to the put-big-numbers-in-context genre, here’s the history timeline of our planet in the context of 100 yards. Tags: big numbers, football

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Bayesian fantasy football 101

There's a small site dedicated to Bayesian-informed fantasy football decisions, because of course there is. Here's the 101 intro. Here's the crux of thinking probabilistically about fantasy football: for any given week, when you start a player you're picking out one of these little x's at random. Each x is equally likely to get picked. Each score, however, is not. There are a lot more x's between 0-10 points than...

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Denver Broncos testing in-game analytics

Analytics continues its spread into the various facets of sports. Just recently, the Denver Broncos hired a director of analytics, Mitch Tanney, who will be available to coaches on the field to provide probabilities that inform in-game decisions. "If we're moving the ball or we're doing formatting, I've got Mitch with me because he's going to be on the headset, so we're trying to practice," Kubiak said. With Tanney nearby,...

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Questionable fumble statistics for Deflate-Gate

A data-centric look at New England Patriots fumble rates at home made the rounds this week. The most cited tidbit was that there is only a 1 in 16,233 chance that the Patriots achieved the lower rate via randomness. Therefore, the Patriots must have cheated. Gregory J. Matthews and Michael Lopez explain, finding by finding, why the results from Sharp Football Analysis are suspect. Even if you're not into football,...

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Questionable fumble statistics for Deflate-Gate

A data-centric look at New England Patriots fumble rates at home made the rounds this week. The most cited tidbit was that there is only a 1 in 16,233 chance that the Patriots achieved the lower rate via randomness. Therefore, the Patriots must have cheated. Gregory J. Matthews and Michael Lopez explain, finding by finding, why the results from Sharp Football Analysis are suspect. Even if you're not into football,...

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