43 posts
FiveThirtyEight evaluates their forecasts

FiveThirtyEight uses forecasts to attach probabilities to politics and sports, and they get most of their attention before the events. After all, we don’t need a forecast after something happened. But forecasts aren’t useful if they don’t represent reality. So, FiveThirtyEight evaluated all of their projections. Tags: FiveThirtyEight, forecasting

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xkcd: Ensemble model

That xkcd is such a joker. Munroe should start a comic. Tags: forecasting, humor, weather

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Prophet for forecasting with a lot of data

Facebook released Prophet, which is a procedure to quickly forecast with time series data. Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data. It is based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly and weekly seasonality, plus holidays. It works best with daily periodicity data with at least one year of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data, shifts in the trend, and large outliers....

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