probability

34 posts
Looking for similar NBA games, based on win probability time series

Inpredictable, a sports analytics site by Michael Beuoy, tracks win probabilities of NBA games going back to the 1996-97 season. When a team is up by a lot, their probability of winning is high, and then flip that for the losing team. So for each game, you have a minute-by-minute time series of win probability. Beuoy added a new feature that looks for games with similar patterns a.k.a. “Dopplegamers”. Tags:...

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Probability you will break up with your partner

Rosenfeld, et al. from Stanford University ran a survey in 2009 for a study on How Couples Meet and Stay Together. Dan Kopf and Youyou Zhou for Quartz used this dataset to estimate the probability that you will break up with your partner, given a few bits of information about your current relationship. The Stanford data page says a 2017 release is on the way. I’m curious how, if anything,...

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How Many Friends You Need to Have a Birthday Every Day of the Year

If it seems like every day you log in to Facebook, it’s someone’s birthday, you're probably not that far off. Read More

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What That Election Probability Means

You're going to see probability values mentioned a lot these next few months. Many people will misinterpret. But not you. Read More

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Nearly impossible to predict mass shootings with current data

Even if there were a statistical model that predicted a mass shooter with 99 percent accuracy, that still leaves a lot of false positives. And when you’re dealing with individuals on a scale of millions, that’s a big deal. Brian Resnick and Javier Zarracina for Vox break down the simple math with a cartoon. Tags: probability, shootings

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What probability means in different fields

Statistically, probability ranges from 0 to 1 — impossible to definitely without a doubt. Math with Bad Drawings characterized what those values mean in various fields of expertise. This amuses me. Tags: humor, probability

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Statistician, a cancer survivor and The Price is Right contestant, calculates the odds of life and winning

Elisa Long, a professor in Decisions, Operations, and Technology Management at the University of California, Los Angeles, was diagnosed with breast cancer. The Price is Right films a breast cancer awareness episode every August. Long wanted to get on that show. So she watched episodes during her 6-hour chemotherapy sessions to familiarize herself with games and rules, and most importantly, to maximize her odds of winning. Long describes her thought...

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